Week 6, 2024: Navigating a Rough Week with Strategic Insights
We dive deeper into what the sixth week of trading is presenting to us in 2024.
Econ News Calendar:
Mon - (GREEN) normal trading day
Tue -(GREEN) lack of news
Wed - (GREEN) lack of news
Thu - (GREEN) normal trading day
Fri - (GREEN) lack of news drivers
Overall thoughts:
A very rough week in terms of price action passed by, yet the market offered positions according to the entry models we are looking for every day of the week. We continue to stream at 16:15 daily this week with a simple expectation of a very nice Power of 3 forming this week.
Accumulate over Monday, manipulate during Tue - Wed lack of news in the market and Distribute during Thu itself.
We go over live price action daily on my DC channel!
Most importantly, we finally reached February; price action will start falling in love with our entry models, allowing us to push towards higher risk levels more confidently.
Looking at the markets itself:
Finally, the dollar expanded away from the dealing range created throughout January. We hope for higher prices on the dollar to continue throughout the week, allowing foreign currency pairs to find discount PD arrays.
Index Futures are finding new All Time Highs again, and we are seeing a divergence where ES has found a new high last week whilst NQ was not able to push for it.
➡️ Treasury bonds (ZBH 2024): The sellside draw on liquidity did not pan out as wished for last week. Volume imbalance at 120’s did not hold the price to the downside. With the swing low of Jan 19th taken, Bonds have two ways of dealing it’s hand. Daily FVG holding the price will push us towards 126’00. As long as we are out of sync with Bonds and the Dollar (Mon - Thu) last week, consolidation in the market will continue; if we get prices moving together like last Friday, expansion is guaranteed.
➡️ DXY: The price is very close to the draw on liquidity at 104.263 in terms of buy-side. Monthly Levels will be in the crosshairs if the price wants to continue higher afterward. The dollar taking the buy-side and Index Futures not being in sync (SMT on Daily) might give us a top on ES/NQ short-term.
➡️ EU: Finally, with the Dollar expanding to the upside, the EU closed below the Daily FVG at 1.08282. Discount PD arrays are the next draw on liquidity. WATCH IT: If the price closes below 1.07564 this Friday, the EU will rapidly start lowering towards 1.06148 and Daily Liquidity below it.
➡️ GU: Just like last week, I will not look to trade the Pound. The price is a two-month consolidation, and it has to leave the dealing range before the algoo shows its hand for the real move. For price action to go lower, a close below 1.26112 is necessary.
➡️ US500: There are no real targets for me regarding buyside again this week. The fourth week in a row, though we are not looking for the top yet. The first indication of it happening has been dealt as a card. We finally have a proper divergence with ES and NQ, not creating a higher high on the Daily chart together (SMT). 4700 is the draw on liquidity. If the price breaks below 4866.
➡️ US100: We remain bullish on the Nasdaq until the SMT gets confirmed. This means ES and NQ both broke to the downside rapidly, and 17793.5 is left in place. A short-term buy-side would be created with an initial draw on liquidity being in the discount PD arrays. If SMT does not pan out, 17880.25 is in the crosshair.
➡️ BTC: Higher prices were given just like expected. Now, with two calls in a row with a downside target of 40k and 43250 being hit, the accumulation stage is initiated. This means I am not touching BTC until daily closes below 40282.87 (draw on liquidity below if this happens), OR the price closing above 45555.5 would indicate a push towards 50k.
➡️ BONUS: Gold. Price has inverted Daily FVG at 2045.835. Buyside is next draw on liquidity at 2088.545. If Daily closes above 2110.435, I am watching 2200.
